Election 2024: The illusion of division hits a tipping point
Election 2024: The illusion of division hits a tipping point
Trump's historic upset may reveal a path to bridging the political divide
Yesterday, the world awakened to a reality that hundreds of millions of people neither expected nor wanted: an America boasting Donald J. Trump as its President-elect.
After more than a year of egregiously manipulative campaign ads, roller coaster polling, grandstanding debate performances, and recycled (and unfulfilled) promises from the 2020 election cycle, we were primed to expect the worst. We’d endured warnings from pundits and political operatives of the looming threat of fascism and dictatorship, unchecked racism, deportation of legal immigrants, mass executions, nationwide bans on abortion and interracial marriage, and the death of democracy and the Constitution. We’d been inundated by headlines warning of inevitable violence and unrest, regardless of which candidate ultimately won the election.
Yet in the cold light of day, something unexpected happened. The aftermath of one of the most hotly contested elections in modern history has been, well, surprisingly uneventful—dare I say, even anticlimactic?
Our cities didn’t burn, the Capitol wasn’t stormed, and police didn’t pummel protesters in the streets. A friend in Portland told me yesterday that “after the Antifa craziness in 2016” he was bracing for impact. But the day after the election things seemed “strangely quiet.” It was as if we had all breathed a collective sigh of relief as the stress and weight of the past year slipped off our backs and out of our minds. Regardless of how we voted or felt about the results, it seemed we’d all taken comfort in the knowledge that this long, ugly drama was finally behind us.
It’s probably too early to fully deconstruct why the election outcome defied expectations on such a massive scale, but the scope of Trump’s victory surely had a lot to do with it. In stark contrast to a razor-thin electoral college win in 2016 that failed to capture the popular vote, Trump won these same states by larger margins and even managed to erode the infamous “blue wall” of Rust Belt states, giving him a respectable 5 million vote edge over Kamala Harris. It’s the kind of clean, decisive win that lays to rest concerns of voter fraud or claims that Trump’s supporters are fringe thinkers and kooks who don’t represent the majority of Americans.
But I suspect this eerie silence may also be rooted in something else. I think many of us are quietly coming to terms with a reality I’ve written about a lot over the past several years: the illusion of division.
I believe the identity-based culture war that’s gripped America for the past decade has obscured a politically inconvenient truth. Regardless of our race or ethnicity, whether we live in “blue” metropolitan centers or rural communities in “red” states, most Americans share the same values, goals, and challenges that are, increasingly, based not on identity group, but class. It’s a reality that party leaders, political pundits, and the media have assiduously avoided. It’s also one they can no longer ignore. We’ve finally reached the tipping point that has exposed this illusion of division.
As I digested the election results on Tuesday night in real time, I was struck by a pattern that mainstream media wasn’t paying attention to. According to exit polls, Trump:
Received 20% of the black vote in WI
Received 25% of the black male vote in GA
Received 39% of the Asian vote
Received 60% of the Latino vote in MI
Received 46% of the Latino vote nationwide
Received 65% of the Native American vote
Won Baldwin county, GA (41% black), making him the first Republican to win since 2004
Won Anson county, NC (40% black), making him only the second Republican to win since Reconstruction
Won Starr County, TX (97% Latino), making him the first Republican to win since 1892.
Overall, one in three Americans of color voted for Trump.
Most significantly, while Trump’s support among white voters dropped from 57% in 2020 to 49% in 2024, his support among black and Latino voters increased from 38% to 42%.
Against all odds, Trump is somehow making the Republican Party more diverse than it has been in 60 years.
It’s often easy to forget that political parties are composed of people. They aren’t static; like the people within them, parties can and do evolve. 150 years ago, northern Republicans were the party of abolitionists responsible for freeing American slaves, while southern Democrats fought to keep slavery legal. After the Civil War, northern industrialists who had accumulated wealth during the bloody conflict entered politics, and business interests came to dominate the Republican party. During the Depression, Franklin D. Roosevelt campaigned on a platform of government intervention, financial assistance, and concern for the welfare of average Americans, creating a major shift in Democratic party ideology that was solidified when Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964. It was at that point that most black voters left the Republican Party and joined Democrats, while white southern Democrats migrated to the Republican Party.
The results of the 2024 presidential election are compelling evidence that another historic demographic shift is underway in both parties. The American electorate is becoming less politically divided along racial or ethnic lines, with individual groups behaving less as unified voting blocs. While the Democratic party’s membership has become less diverse and more concentrated among educated, upper middle class urban voters, people of color are returning to a Republican party that was once dominated by elites but is now increasingly populated by working and middle class Americans.
After decades of treating politics like team sports, reflexively supporting candidates based on personal characteristics and party labels (“You live in Chicago? So you’re a Bears fan, right?”), voters are awakening to the need to look beyond their perceived differences. More Americans from disparate groups and all walks of life are disregarding the importance of identity and coming together based on their common needs, values, and goals.
Yet in the face of a political realignment that’s been underway for nearly a decade, Establishment agents have turned a blind eye. Rather than acknowledge the increasing fragility of identity politics, the media instead have chosen to brand Trump’s white supporters as racists, fascists, and extremists. His detractors even derided his supporters of color as ignorant, misguided, and enablers of white supremacy. When name calling didn’t move the needle, they resorted to shaming and patronizing. In the final weeks of the campaign, President Obama made an in person appearance in Pittsburgh to urge black men to vote for Harris because “she understands [their] struggles and pain and joy that comes from those experiences.” Throughout the campaign, Hollywood’s A-list (Beyonce, J Lo, Lady Gaga, Taylor Swift, to name a few) were brought in to rally the Democrat base and excite young voters.
It was a gargantuan, celebrity-studded, multi-billion dollar endeavor—and yet it failed.
Over the past 24 hours, an unusual calm has descended upon a nation accustomed to daily outrage and bitter vitriol. But there’s also a sense of confusion. In the coming weeks, we can expect endless hand-wringing, post-mortems, and teeth gnashing as analysts and pundits struggle to comprehend this strange, new political landscape. The burning question on everyone’s minds: how could the once impenetrable Democratic coalition have failed so spectacularly?
Last night a pro-Harris friend in Los Angeles texted me, asking for my thoughts: “I need someone to explain it to me…trying to make sense…Why do POC support him?”
My response: “They support Trump for the same reason white Americans do.”
Exit polls revealed the same top concerns among voters in all demographics: democracy and the economy. A whopping 45% of Americans believe they are financially worse off today than they were four years ago. Yet while only 13% of Harris voters ranked the economy as their top concern, 51% of Trump voters felt their finances were a priority.
More broadly, there was a much bigger issue: 72% of Americans described themselves as either “dissatisfied” or “angry” with the direction the country is heading. Since white people represent only 58% of the population, this means a substantial chunk of people of color are apparently in desperate need of change—and rightly or wrongly, they believe Trump is an agent of change.
If he succeeds in meeting their expectations, it’s likely that we will continue to see a migration of voters of color to Trump’s newfangled Republican party; if he fails, expect a healthy dollop of them to boomerang back to Democrats. Regardless, going forward there’s good reason to believe that voters across all demographics are beginning to hold both parties to greater scrutiny and accountability and placing more emphasis on outcomes than promises. With any luck, both parties will eventually reflect our country’s diversity and attract members based on their shared values and needs rather than immutable characteristics. And if they can’t, then an awakened and values-driven electorate might finally be incentivized to support and advocate for the Holy Grail in politics: a viable third party.
During this moment of confusion, relief, and disbelief, we find ourselves in a rare moment of peace. Yes, unrest or violence could be just around the corner, and armies of attorneys might be poised on the steps of courthouses across the country as I write this, ready to ignite a powder keg of election litigation.
But this could also be our chance for a fresh start. A reset, so to speak.
I was heartened by Harris’ eloquent and gracious concession speech, giving hope to a generation of young women who yearn to follow in her footsteps, while simultaneously affording Trump the space to make good on his pledge to Americans who crave change. I’m also optimistic that a second Trump presidency won’t be nearly as terrifying as many expect, if for no other reason than because we’ve already been there. Love him or hate him, he’s a known quantity, which brings the fear factor down a notch or two. We survived four years before; we can probably do it again (for the last time!).
Let’s seize this moment as an opportunity to turn the page on identity politics that have polarized our country, held us hostage politically, and concealed the illusion of division. Let’s send a message, loud and clear, to the people who have caricatured us, preyed on our fears, and destroyed our faith and trust in one another: We’re tired of fighting. We’re ready to move on and come together to save the home we all love.
The world is watching, waiting, and counting on us to get this right. Let’s not disappoint them.
This is an essay for our 2024 Election series. Submit your article to submissions@fairforall.org.
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