What Does Trump's Second Term Mean for Black America?

Promise and peril

Politics

WHAT DOES TRUMP’S SECOND TERM MEAN FOR BLACK AMERICA?

Promise and peril

Michael Creswell

In his inauguration speech yesterday, Trump thanked his black and Hispanic voters, saying, “we set records, and I will not forget it,” and promising, “I look forward to working with you in the years to come.” These words aside, what does Trump’s second term mean for black America? What can we expect from a man claiming “I have been the best president for the black population since Abraham Lincoln”? We can say little with certainty; there are too many unknowns. But looking at Trump’s record, his campaign promises, and recent developments in the political world does provide a foundation for informed speculation.

Trump’s second term begins with substantial institutional and political backing. Republicans will control the House of Representatives, albeit by a slim majority, the Senate, and have a solid conservative majority on the Supreme Court. Trump has named loyalists as Cabinet members and key advisers; they will be eager carry out his agenda. His MAGA base provides an additional source of wind at his back.

Trump will also face fewer obstacles when he becomes president than he did in his first term. The disarray within the Democratic Party following its defeat in the election means Trump will face an opposition that is not united. There is currently no obvious leader of the Democrats. And many Trump critics have decided to mend fences with the president elect. Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski, the co-hosts of “Morning Joe,” former Washington Post CEO Jeff Bezos, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Google co-founder Sergey Brin, Google leader Sundar Pichai, Senator John Fetterman (Democrat-Pennsylvania), and other former foes have recently made the trek to Mar-a-Lago, acknowledging that Trump won the election and now has the upper hand. Facing a weakened opposition will give him a significant advantage.

But don’t expect most of the black political, economic, and cultural elite to make similar gestures. Despite Trump’s relative success with black voters in 2024, especially with black men, he remains toxic to much of the black elite. Relatively few of them will risk taking a big reputational hit by publicly supporting Trump.

Trump will therefore face entrenched opposition in many segments of black America. Most of the black press and the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) will remain Trump antagonists. In July 2024 Trump met with the National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ), which was divided over the wisdom of even asking him to speak to them. Trump’s remarks to the NABJ, such as comparing his record on race to that of Lincoln, and questioning whether Kamala Harris was truly black, caused controversy. Similar controversies are likely to occur in the future.

For its part, the CBC has pledged to stand against Trump. According to Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), a senior CBC member and ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, “This administration poses a danger, and we’re here to counter that.”

Standing in contrast to this is the NAACP. Although the organization announced in May 2024 that “Donald Trump is unfit to represent American democracy,” it reacted moderately to Trump’s victory. A press statement said, “Where there is common ground, we will strive to collaborate with the President-elect and his administration. The NAACP is loyal not to politicians, but to policies that allow us to keep advancing, no matter what.” This latter statement is a wise strategy. Better to take gains that can be had rather than fight unwinnable fights.

While the NAACP advocates for collaboration where possible, the Trump administration will shift away from identity-focused policies. Unlike Joe Biden, Trump has not promised to choose any members of his administration based on sex or race. So far, only one of Trump’s Cabinet picks, Texas state Rep. Scott Turner, who would lead Housing and Urban Development, is black. In any case, the number of black faces in any presidential administration means little for the prospects of black America. Having a handful of black faces in positions of power is more symbolism than substance. Promoting black elites does nothing for the millions of black Americans who face educational and financial deficits. Attending to black people’s material disadvantages is more important than the politics of representation.

Trump will also talk about race much differently than Joe Biden. Trump will not say, as Biden did, that “white supremacy” is the greatest terrorist threat to the country. This is a good thing, because relatively few Americans believe that white supremacy is a bigger national threat than radical Islamists. Moreover, the demonization of whites can only worsen race relations in this country.

DEI has long been one of Trump’s targets. It was already losing favor in higher education, even facing cutbacks at places like the University of Michigan, formerly a hotbed of political correctness, where internal surveys revealed its ineffectiveness.

Corporations are similarly ending or scaling back DEI programs, driven by the Supreme Court ruling on affirmative action and by political pressure. Critics argue that DEI policies, which limit hiring pools based on race or sex, are unworkable in competitive environments. And indeed Trump has already ended the federal government’s DEI initiatives in an Executive Order he rolled out yesterday. DEI is largely a symbolic gesture. It has done little to alter the material disadvantages of black Americans and, instead, has strained race relations further.

Trump’s promise to dismantle the U.S. Department of Education raises questions about its impact on black students and broader educational outcomes. If successful, how will this affect the education of black students? Created in 1979, the department’s stated mission is to “promote student achievement and preparation for global competitiveness by fostering educational excellence and ensuring equal access for students of all ages.” There is little evidence that the department has improved the performance of black students, though abolishing it could prove difficult.

In September 2023 Trump said: “We’re going to end education coming out of Washington, DC. We’re going to close it up – all those buildings all over the place and people that in many cases hate our children. We’re going to send it all back to the states.” In a characteristically confident statement, Trump stated “We’ll be able to cut [spending on] education in half and get much better education in some of the states. We’ll have the best education anywhere in the world.”

Trump noted that the United States spends more “per pupil” than any other country, yet “we’re at the bottom of every list.” However, the link between increased spending and education and improved educational results is tenuous at best. As I have written, the home is a more important place for education than the classroom.

Trump’s stance on policing, including support for stop-and-frisk, highlights his readiness to champion controversial policies in the name of law and order. This approach is likely to provoke significant debate, especially within the black community, as the policy has historically drawn criticism. While the ACLU argues that “stop-and-frisk is both unconstitutional and ineffective,” proponents within law enforcement view it as a necessary tool for reducing crime. Although research suggests that increased police presence in high-crime neighborhoods may be more effective than stop-and-frisk alone, Trump’s backing of such measures reflects his preference for controversial approaches to law enforcement, even at the risk of reigniting old tensions.

While Trump’s domestic policies aim to restructure societal norms, his economic initiatives like tariffs signal a broader reshaping of American competitiveness. For black Americans in industries particularly vulnerable to economic shifts, these tariffs could exacerbate financial challenges, limiting opportunities for upward mobility. Trump has long sought to impose tariffs to protect American firms and workers from foreign competition. During his first term in office, Trump imposed billions of dollars in tariffs. But contrary to Trump, tariffs, which are taxes on imported goods, are costly for American consumers. The Tax Policy Center estimates that Trump’s proposal for a 20 percent worldwide tariff and a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods would increase household costs by an average of nearly $3,000 in 2025. Black Americans, who as a demographic group rank dead last in income and wealth in this country, can ill-afford such an added expense. Moreover, the Tax Foundation expects that, if enacted, Trump’s tariff plan would shrink US employment by 684,000 full-time jobs. Given the overrepresentation of black Americans in low-income brackets and industries sensitive to economic shifts, these tariffs could disproportionately impact their employment and financial stability.

Ultimately, Trump’s policies, whether in education, policing, or the economy, could shape the trajectory of black America in profound ways. The question remains whether these changes will result in greater material progress for the black community or widen existing inequities. If Trump can avoid embroiling the country in trade wars and shooting wars, continue to support the rollback of the excesses of wokeism, reduce crime, and secure the southern border, his second term could lay the groundwork for progress in black communities.

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Michael H. Creswell is Associate Professor of History at Florida State University, the author of A Question of Balance: How France and the United States Created Cold War Europe, and an executive editor at History: Reviews of New Books. A specialist on the Cold War, Creswell is currently writing a book that examines the increasing difficulties Americans have in communicating in socially and politically productive ways. He publishes regularly in the Journal of Free Black Thought, including “Closing the Racial Academic Achievement Gap,” “Why Black Americans Should Care More About Foreign Affairs,” “How Would Black America Fare if Progressives Got Their Way?,” “The Price of the Game,” “The End of Affirmative Action is an Opportunity,” “To Forgive or Not to Forgive?,” “How to Prepare Your Child for College,” “How to Flourish in College,” and “How to Apply to Graduate and Professional School.”